Aluminij vs Celje: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 20Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Športni Park Aluminij, Kidričevo
The Footlab model makes Celje the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Aluminij. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aluminij vs Celje?
Celje starts as the favourite with a 262-point Elo edge (1,948 vs 1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aluminij have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Celje have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(home) | 4-2 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Radomlje(away) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nafta(home) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nafta(away) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aluminij win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Celje win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Celje 5-0 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Aluminij 2-1 Celje | 1. SNL |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Celje 2-1 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Aluminij 2-3 Celje | 1. SNL |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Celje 2-2 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Celje 4-1 Aluminij | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Aluminij score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Celje score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminij | 0.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Celje | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aluminij sit 3rd in 1. SNL (8 points from 5 matches) and Celje sit 2nd (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Aluminij | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 4 | Celje | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aluminij vs Celje?
- The Footlab model makes Celje the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Aluminij.
- Where and when is Aluminij vs Celje played?
- Aluminij vs Celje is played on February 6, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Športni Park Aluminij, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.