Amagaju vs Mukura: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Nyagisenyi Stadium, Gikongoro
The Footlab model makes Mukura the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Amagaju. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Amagaju vs Mukura?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Amagaju (1,609) and Mukura (1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Amagaju have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Mukura have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 22, 2026 | Muhanga(home) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 17, 2026 | Al Merreikh(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 10, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 5, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Amagaju(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Gicumbi(away) | 2-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Bugesera(home) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Gorilla(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Amagaju win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Mukura win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Mukura 0-0 Amagaju | National Soccer League |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Amagaju 0-1 Mukura | National Soccer League |
| May 17, 2025 | Amagaju 1-1 Mukura | National Soccer League |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Mukura 1-0 Amagaju | National Soccer League |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Mukura 3-2 Amagaju | National Soccer League |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Amagaju 1-1 Mukura | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Amagaju score 0.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mukura score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amagaju | 0.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Mukura | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Amagaju sit 16th in National Soccer League (35 points from 34 matches) and Mukura sit 7th (47 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mukura | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 38 | 47 |
| 16 | Amagaju | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 19 | 38 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Amagaju vs Mukura?
- The Footlab model makes Mukura the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Amagaju.
- Where and when is Amagaju vs Mukura played?
- Amagaju vs Mukura is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Nyagisenyi Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.