Sunrise vs Police: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Golgotha Stadium, Nyagatare
The Footlab model calls this one tight: 30% for Sunrise, 35% for a draw, 35% for Police. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sunrise vs Police?
Police starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,737 vs 1,601).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sunrise have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Police have 3, 9 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2024 | Marines(home) | 3-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 4, 2024 | Amagaju(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Gorilla(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Gasogi United(away) | 0-3 | National Soccer League |
| Apr 3, 2024 | Kiyovu Sports(away) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Gasogi United(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Musanze(away) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sunrise win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Police win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2024 | Sunrise 2-1 Police | National Soccer League |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Police 2-0 Sunrise | National Soccer League |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Police 2-1 Sunrise | National Soccer League |
| Aug 19, 2022 | Sunrise 1-0 Police | National Soccer League |
| Jan 5, 2020 | Sunrise 2-2 Police | National Soccer League |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Police 3-2 Sunrise | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Sunrise score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Police score 0.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 25% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunrise | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Police | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Police | 34 | 12 | 16 | 6 | 29 | 19 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sunrise vs Police?
- The Footlab model calls this one tight: 30% for Sunrise, 35% for a draw, 35% for Police.
- Where and when is Sunrise vs Police played?
- Sunrise vs Police is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Golgotha Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 25% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.