Amiens vs Caen: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 13Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Amiens
The Footlab model makes Caen the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Amiens. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Amiens vs Caen?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Amiens (1,716) and Caen (1,780).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Amiens have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Caen have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | La Roche VF(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Fleury 91(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | RED Star FC 93(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chambly Thelle FC(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aubagne(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(away) | 3-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Valenciennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dieppe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Amiens win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Caen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | Amiens 2-1 Caen | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Caen 2-1 Amiens | Ligue 2 |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Caen 2-0 Amiens | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 19, 2023 | Amiens 0-0 Caen | Ligue 2 |
| May 20, 2023 | Amiens 1-3 Caen | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Caen 3-1 Amiens | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Amiens score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Caen score 2.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amiens | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Caen | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Amiens sit 16th in Ligue 3 (1 points from 3 matches) and Caen sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Amiens | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Amiens vs Caen?
- The Footlab model makes Caen the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Amiens.
- Where and when is Amiens vs Caen played?
- Amiens vs Caen is played on November 21, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.