Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 13Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade de la Source, Orléans
The Footlab model makes Orleans the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Thionville Lusitanos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Orleans (1,849) and Thionville Lusitanos (1,820).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orleans have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Thionville Lusitanos have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Fleury 91(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rouen(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Concarneau(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | RED Star FC 93(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Caen(home) | 4-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Aubagne(away) | 3-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nancy(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Chambly Thelle FC(home) | 0-4 | National 2 - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Orleans score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Thionville Lusitanos score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Thionville Lusitanos | 1.9 | 1.6 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orleans sit 5th in Ligue 3 (6 points from 3 matches) and Thionville Lusitanos sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thionville Lusitanos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Orleans | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos?
- The Footlab model makes Orleans the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Thionville Lusitanos.
- Where and when is Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos played?
- Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos is played on November 21, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade de la Source, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.