Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 13Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade de la Source, Orléans
The Footlab AI model makes Thionville Lusitanos the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Orleans. The most likely score is 1-1. If Thionville Lusitanos wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,626 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Orleans (1,848) and Thionville Lusitanos (1,833).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Orleans
4-1-4-1- 19R. Legendre
- 7M. Diako
- 20B. Dali Amar
- 10G. Khous
- 6H. Aubourg
- 26A. Ribeiro
- 5M. Sylla Diallo
- 3T. Ndicka
- 27M. Lemaitre
- 12M. Guiheneuf
- 1F. Faham
Thionville Lusitanos
4-4-2- 9M. Bouhmidi
- 7K. Tubio
- 26E. Montet
- 8S. Kilic
- 20B. Diarra
- 22J. Moustaid
- 6M. Aljic
- 5J. Atangana
- 23S. Bouzar
- 17D. Luvualu
- 40W. Bedfian
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orleans have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Thionville Lusitanos have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Valenciennes(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Villefranche(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Quevilly(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Bastia(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Amiens(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Versailles(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | La Roche VF(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Fleury 91(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Orleans score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Thionville Lusitanos score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Thionville Lusitanos | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orleans sit 14th in Ligue 3 (11 points from 12 matches) and Thionville Lusitanos sit 12th (13 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Thionville Lusitanos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 13 |
| 14 | Orleans | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 11 |
A question about Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos?
- The Footlab AI model makes Thionville Lusitanos the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Orleans.
- Where and when is Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos played?
- Orleans vs Thionville Lusitanos is played on November 21, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade de la Source, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.