Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Yerevan Football Academy, Yerevan
The Footlab model makes Ararat-Armenia the favourite at 76%, against 17% for a draw and 7% for Gandzasar. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar?
Ararat-Armenia is a heavy favourite: 1,868 Elo points against 1,454, a 414-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ararat-Armenia have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Gandzasar have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Universitatea Craiova(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Van(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Celje(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC Urartu(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Shirak(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Syunik(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(home) | 3-4 | Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Ararat-Armenia win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Gandzasar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gandzasar 3-4 Ararat-Armenia | Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Gandzasar | Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Gandzasar 0-1 Ararat-Armenia | Premier League |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Gandzasar | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Gandzasar 0-4 Ararat-Armenia | Premier League |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Ararat-Armenia 3-0 Gandzasar | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Gandzasar vs Ararat-Armenia on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ararat-Armenia score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gandzasar score 1.2 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Gandzasar | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ararat-Armenia sit 2nd in Premier League (10 points from 4 matches) and Gandzasar sit 8th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Gandzasar | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar?
- The Footlab model makes Ararat-Armenia the favourite at 76%, against 17% for a draw and 7% for Gandzasar.
- Where and when is Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar played?
- Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar is played on October 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Yerevan Football Academy, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.