Ararat vs Alashkert: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, Yerevan
The Footlab model makes Alashkert the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Ararat. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ararat vs Alashkert?
Alashkert starts as the favourite with a 217-point Elo edge (1,691 vs 1,473).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ararat have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Alashkert have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | BKMA(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Andranik(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Gandzasar(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC Noah(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | BKMA(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Ararat(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ararat win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Alashkert win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | Alashkert 3-0 Ararat | Premier League |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Alashkert 2-0 Ararat | Premier League |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ararat 2-3 Alashkert | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Alashkert 3-0 Ararat | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Ararat 3-2 Alashkert | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Alashkert 0-1 Ararat | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ararat score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Alashkert score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Alashkert | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ararat sit 9th in Premier League (3 points from 4 matches) and Alashkert sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Alashkert | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Ararat | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ararat vs Alashkert?
- The Footlab model makes Alashkert the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Ararat.
- Where and when is Ararat vs Alashkert played?
- Ararat vs Alashkert is played on October 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.