Ararat vs BKMA: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, Yerevan
The Footlab model makes Ararat the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for BKMA. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ararat vs BKMA?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Ararat (1,473) and BKMA (1,486).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ararat have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; BKMA have 1, 6 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | BKMA(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Andranik(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Noah(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ararat(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Shirak(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| May 26, 2026 | Ararat(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ararat win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 BKMA win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | BKMA 1-2 Ararat | Premier League |
| May 26, 2026 | Ararat 1-1 BKMA | Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | BKMA 4-0 Ararat | Premier League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Ararat 2-2 BKMA | Premier League |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Ararat 1-1 BKMA | Premier League |
| Feb 14, 2025 | BKMA 1-0 Ararat | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Ararat score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; BKMA score 0.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| BKMA | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ararat sit 9th in Premier League (3 points from 4 matches) and BKMA sit 10th (1 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ararat | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 10 | BKMA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ararat vs BKMA?
- The Footlab model makes Ararat the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for BKMA.
- Where and when is Ararat vs BKMA played?
- Ararat vs BKMA is played on November 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.