Ararat vs FC Noah: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, Yerevan
The Footlab model makes FC Noah the favourite at 75%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Ararat. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ararat vs FC Noah?
FC Noah is a heavy favourite: 1,916 Elo points against 1,474 — a 442-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ararat have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; FC Noah have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | BKMA(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Andranik(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | BKMA(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Alashkert(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shirak(away) | 4-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Sion(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ararat win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 FC Noah win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | FC Noah 8-3 Ararat | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Ararat 0-3 FC Noah | Premier League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | FC Noah 2-0 Ararat | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | FC Noah 3-0 Ararat | Premier League |
| Nov 20, 2024 | FC Noah 4-0 Ararat | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Ararat 2-1 FC Noah | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ararat score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; FC Noah score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| FC Noah | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ararat sit 9th in Premier League (3 points from 4 matches) and FC Noah sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Ararat | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ararat vs FC Noah?
- The Footlab model makes FC Noah the favourite at 75%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Ararat.
- Where and when is Ararat vs FC Noah played?
- Ararat vs FC Noah is played on December 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.