Arbroath vs Ayr Utd: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gayfield Park, Arbroath
The Footlab model makes Arbroath the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Ayr Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Arbroath (1,726) and Ayr Utd (1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arbroath have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Ayr Utd have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Morton(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Montrose(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Arbroath win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Ayr Utd win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ayr Utd 2-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ayr Utd 1-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Arbroath 1-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Ayr Utd 1-1 Arbroath | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Arbroath 1-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Ayr Utd 4-0 Arbroath | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Arbroath score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ayr Utd score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Ayr Utd | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arbroath sit 6th in Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Ayr Utd sit 5th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ayr Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
- The Footlab model makes Arbroath the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Ayr Utd.
- Where and when is Arbroath vs Ayr Utd played?
- Arbroath vs Ayr Utd is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gayfield Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.