Arbroath vs Ayr Utd: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gayfield Park, Arbroath
The Footlab AI model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Arbroath. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ayr Utd wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Arbroath (1,708) and Ayr Utd (1,741).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arbroath vs Ayr Utd
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arbroath
4-2-3-1- 9A. Winter
- 20S. Constable
- 8R. Flynn
- 25J. MacIntyre
- 11R. Dow
- 14M. McKenna
- 16C. Watson
- 26S. Mackie
- 22C. Dewar
- 6T. Beadling
- 1A. McAdams
Ayr Utd
3-4-3- 11R. Taylor
- 12Olly Whyte
- 7O. Stirton
- 6R. Lyon
- 33S. McMann
- 32D. Watret
- 20L. McBeth
- 8L. King
- 5K. Holt
- 3L. Dick
- 1H. Stone
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arbroath have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Ayr Utd have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Partick(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Partick(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Arbroath wins, 3 draws, 3 Ayr Utd wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ayr Utd 2-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ayr Utd 1-0 Arbroath | Championship |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Arbroath 1-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Ayr Utd 1-1 Arbroath | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Arbroath 1-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Ayr Utd 4-0 Arbroath | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Arbroath score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ayr Utd score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Ayr Utd | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arbroath sit 7th in Championship (11 points from 9 matches) and Ayr Utd sit 6th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ayr Utd | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 7 | Arbroath | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 11 |
A question about Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arbroath vs Ayr Utd?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Arbroath.
- Where and when is Arbroath vs Ayr Utd played?
- Arbroath vs Ayr Utd is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gayfield Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.