Morton vs Ayr Utd: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Cappielow Park, Greenock
The Footlab AI model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Morton. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morton vs Ayr Utd?
Ayr Utd starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,752 vs 1,606).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Morton vs Ayr Utd
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Morton
4-2-3-1- 7M. Garrity
- 21G. Gillespie
- 20C. Sandilands
- 27I. Wilson
- 19Kerr Robertson
- 17Sahil Bashir
- 2C. Ballantyne
- 4Christopher Cupps
- 6C. Okike
- 3J. Longridge
- 1Elyh Harrison
Ayr Utd
3-4-3- 12Olly Whyte
- 7O. Stirton
- 11R. Taylor
- 6R. Lyon
- 33S. McMann
- 32D. Watret
- 20L. McBeth
- 5K. Holt
- 3L. Dick
- 8L. King
- 1H. Stone
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morton have 1 win, 2 draws and 12 defeats; Ayr Utd have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Raith Rovers(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Morton wins, 3 draws, 1 Ayr Utd win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Ayr Utd 1-1 Morton | Championship |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Ayr Utd 0-1 Morton | Championship |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Morton 1-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Ayr Utd 2-1 Morton | Championship |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Morton 2-2 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Morton 2-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Morton score 0.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ayr Utd score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Ayr Utd | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morton sit 9th in Championship (4 points from 10 matches) and Ayr Utd sit 7th (12 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Morton | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 4 |
A question about Morton vs Ayr Utd?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morton vs Ayr Utd?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ayr Utd the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Morton.
- Where and when is Morton vs Ayr Utd played?
- Morton vs Ayr Utd is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Cappielow Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.