Arconatese vs Città di Varese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Centro Sportivo Comunale Roberto Battaglia, Busto Garolfo
The Footlab model makes Città di Varese the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Arconatese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arconatese vs Città di Varese?
Città di Varese starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,768 vs 1,603).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arconatese have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Città di Varese have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Breno(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Chievo(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Sangiuliano City(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Fanfulla(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Pro Palazzolo(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pro Palazzolo(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Renate(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Ligorna(away) | 3-5 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 9, 2026 | Biellese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 3, 2026 | Lavagnese(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Arconatese win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Città di Varese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2023 | Arconatese 1-0 Città di Varese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Città di Varese 1-3 Arconatese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Sep 12, 2021 | Città di Varese 2-2 Arconatese | Coppa Italia Serie D |
Last archived meeting: Arconatese vs Città di Varese on Mar 5, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Arconatese score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Città di Varese score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arconatese | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Città di Varese | 1.3 | 1.6 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arconatese vs Città di Varese?
- The Footlab model makes Città di Varese the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Arconatese.
- Where and when is Arconatese vs Città di Varese played?
- Arconatese vs Città di Varese is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Centro Sportivo Comunale Roberto Battaglia, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.