Città di Varese vs Pistoiese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Franco Ossola, Varese
The Footlab model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Città di Varese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Città di Varese vs Pistoiese?
Pistoiese starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,907 vs 1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Città di Varese have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Pistoiese have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pro Palazzolo(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Renate(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Ligorna(away) | 3-5 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 9, 2026 | Biellese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 3, 2026 | Lavagnese(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Piacenza(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| May 3, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Desenzano Calvina(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Coriano(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
Città di Varese score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Pistoiese score 1.9 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Città di Varese | 1.3 | 1.6 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Pistoiese | 1.9 | 0.6 | 9 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pistoiese | 33 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 56 | 22 | 68 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Città di Varese vs Pistoiese?
- The Footlab model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Città di Varese.
- Where and when is Città di Varese vs Pistoiese played?
- Città di Varese vs Pistoiese is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Franco Ossola, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.