Pistoiese vs Pavia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Melani, Pistoia
The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Pavia. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pistoiese vs Pavia?
Pistoiese starts as the favourite with a 270-point Elo edge (1,933 vs 1,663).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pistoiese vs Pavia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pistoiese
Not enough data to predict the Pistoiese lineup.
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 05:42 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pistoiese have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Pavia have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sestri Levante(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Varesina(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Solbiatese(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
Pistoiese score 2.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pavia score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistoiese | 2.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Pavia | 0.9 | 1.2 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pistoiese sit 1st in Serie D - Girone D (18 points from 6 matches) and Pavia sit 10th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Pavia | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
A question about Pistoiese vs Pavia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pistoiese vs Pavia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Pavia.
- Where and when is Pistoiese vs Pavia played?
- Pistoiese vs Pavia is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Melani, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.