Arenal vs Alcúdia: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Son Verí, S'Arenal de Llucmajor
The Footlab model makes Arenal the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Alcúdia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenal vs Alcúdia?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Arenal (1,653) and Alcúdia (1,698).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenal have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Alcúdia have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2024 | Llosetense(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 5, 2024 | Alcúdia(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 1, 2024 | Sóller(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Santanyí(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Manacor(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Mercadal(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Binissalem(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Felanitx(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Portmany(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Arenal win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Alcúdia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2024 | Arenal 2-2 Alcúdia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Alcúdia 2-1 Arenal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
How many goals should we expect?
Arenal score 0.8 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Alcúdia score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenal | 0.8 | 1.8 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Alcúdia | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Alcúdia | 34 | 11 | 6 | 18 | 36 | 59 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenal vs Alcúdia?
- The Footlab model makes Arenal the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Alcúdia.
- Where and when is Arenal vs Alcúdia played?
- Arenal vs Alcúdia is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Son Verí, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.