Arenas Armilla vs Mancha Real: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal, Armilla
The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 56%, against 28% for a draw and 16% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenas Armilla vs Mancha Real?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Arenas Armilla (1,782) and Mancha Real (1,690).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Armilla have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Mancha Real have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Arenas Armilla win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Mancha Real win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Mancha Real 0-2 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Arenas Armilla 0-0 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Arenas Armilla 2-1 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Mancha Real 1-2 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Arenas Armilla 0-0 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | Mancha Real 1-2 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Mancha Real vs Arenas Armilla on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Mancha Real score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Armilla | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Mancha Real | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arenas Armilla sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (54 points from 34 matches) and Mancha Real sit 14th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 54 |
| 14 | Mancha Real | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenas Armilla vs Mancha Real?
- The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 56%, against 28% for a draw and 16% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is Arenas Armilla vs Mancha Real played?
- Arenas Armilla vs Mancha Real is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 13, 2026MelillavsHuétor Vega
- Sep 13, 2026Granada IIvsUD San Pedro
- Sep 13, 2026Almería IIvsAlhaurino
- Sep 13, 2026MotrilvsTorre del Mar
- Sep 13, 2026Málaga IIvsAtlético Porcuna
- Sep 13, 2026MarbellivsCiudad de Torredonjimeno
- Sep 13, 2026Churriana VegavsMalaga City
- Sep 13, 2026CantoriavsAtletico de Marbella