Aris Filiates vs Lefkimmi: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6Group 6 - 10Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Dimotiko Stadio Filiaton, Filiates
The Footlab model makes Aris Filiates the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Lefkimmi. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aris Filiates vs Lefkimmi?
Aris Filiates starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,550 vs 1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aris Filiates have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Lefkimmi have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Tilikratis(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Trikala(away) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Asteras Stavros(home) | 3-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Elassona(home) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Lamia(away) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Proodos Rogon(home) | 5-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | A. Schimatari(home) | 4-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Anagennisi Artas(away) | 1-5 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Anthoupoli(away) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Nea Selefkia(home) | 2-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Aris Filiates win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Lefkimmi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Aris Filiates 1-0 Lefkimmi | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Lefkimmi 3-2 Aris Filiates | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Aris Filiates vs Lefkimmi on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aris Filiates score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lefkimmi score 1.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Filiates | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Lefkimmi | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aris Filiates vs Lefkimmi?
- The Footlab model makes Aris Filiates the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Lefkimmi.
- Where and when is Aris Filiates vs Lefkimmi played?
- Aris Filiates vs Lefkimmi is played on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Dimotiko Stadio Filiaton, in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 6.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.