Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 20Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Thessaloníki
The Footlab model makes Aris Thessalonikis the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Panathinaikos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Aris Thessalonikis (1,950) and Panathinaikos (2,026).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aris Thessalonikis have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Panathinaikos have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kalamata(away) | 3-2 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Anagennisi Karditsas(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Levadiakos(home) | 3-0 | Super League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Hradec Králové(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Paks(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Paks(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aris Thessalonikis win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Panathinaikos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Panathinaikos 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis | Cup |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Panathinaikos 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| May 25, 2024 | Panathinaikos 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aris Thessalonikis score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Panathinaikos score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Thessalonikis | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Panathinaikos | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
- The Footlab model makes Aris Thessalonikis the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Panathinaikos.
- Where and when is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos played?
- Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos is played on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.