Aris vs AEK Larnaca: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
The Footlab model makes Aris the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for AEK Larnaca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
AEK Larnaca starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (2,011 vs 1,912).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aris have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; AEK Larnaca have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Union Berlin(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Atromitos(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 22, 2026 | AEK Larnaca(home) | 3-4 | 1. Division |
| May 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aris win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 AEK Larnaca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Aris 3-4 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 2-0 Aris | 1. Division |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Aris 1-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Sep 22, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 3-2 Aris | 1. Division |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Aris 1-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Mar 29, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 1-1 Aris | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Aris score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; AEK Larnaca score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| AEK Larnaca | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aris sit 6th in 1. Division (51 points from 36 matches) and AEK Larnaca sit 2nd (69 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 62 | 33 | 69 |
| 6 | Aris | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 61 | 45 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
- The Footlab model makes Aris the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for AEK Larnaca.
- Where and when is Aris vs AEK Larnaca played?
- Aris vs AEK Larnaca is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Alphamega Stadium, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.