Aris vs AEK Larnaca: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
The Footlab AI model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Aris. The most likely score is 1-1. If AEK Larnaca wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
AEK Larnaca starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (2,047 vs 1,912).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aris vs AEK Larnaca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aris
4-2-3-1- 11R. Effaghe
- 29D. Gaustad
- 6A. Opoku
- 30Gustavo Pajé
- 21D. Galyata
- 70C. El Allachi
- 20S. Yago
- 27J. Badelj
- 24G. Kalulu
- 3Lazar Maraš
- 91M. Zadro
AEK Larnaca
4-2-3-1- 11R. Bajić
- 14A. Layouni
- 7Gus Ledes
- 20J. Repas
- 6I. Pankov
- 21Miramón
- 15H. Miličević
- 3M. van der Hoorn
- 17K. Pileas
- 23S. Köhler
- 92A. Paleari
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aris have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; AEK Larnaca have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Riga(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Karmiotissa(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Krasava Ypsonas(away) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(home) | 1-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(home) | 2-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Nea Salamis(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Omonia 29is Maiou(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pafos(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Nea Salamis(away) | 4-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aris wins, 1 draw, 3 AEK Larnaca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Aris 3-4 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 2-0 Aris | 1. Division |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Aris 1-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Sep 22, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 3-2 Aris | 1. Division |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Aris 1-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Mar 29, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 1-1 Aris | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Aris score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; AEK Larnaca score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris | 1.2 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| AEK Larnaca | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aris sit 8th in 1. Division (5 points from 4 matches) and AEK Larnaca sit 1st (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Aris | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
A question about Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
- The Footlab AI model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Aris.
- Where and when is Aris vs AEK Larnaca played?
- Aris vs AEK Larnaca is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Alphamega Stadium, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.