Aris vs Omonia Nicosia: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 2Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
The Footlab model makes Omonia Nicosia the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Aris. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aris vs Omonia Nicosia?
Omonia Nicosia starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (2,079 vs 1,912).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aris have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Omonia Nicosia have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Union Berlin(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Atromitos(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 22, 2026 | AEK Larnaca(home) | 3-4 | 1. Division |
| May 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | St. Truiden(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Aris win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Omonia Nicosia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia 3-0 Aris | 1. Division |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Aris 2-2 Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Aris 3-5 Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Omonia Nicosia 0-0 Aris | 1. Division |
| May 12, 2025 | Aris 3-3 Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Omonia Nicosia 2-1 Aris | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: Omonia Nicosia vs Aris on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aris score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Omonia Nicosia score 1.7 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Omonia Nicosia | 1.7 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aris sit 6th in 1. Division (51 points from 36 matches) and Omonia Nicosia sit 1st (87 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omonia Nicosia | 36 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 88 | 24 | 87 |
| 6 | Aris | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 61 | 45 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aris vs Omonia Nicosia?
- The Footlab model makes Omonia Nicosia the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Aris.
- Where and when is Aris vs Omonia Nicosia played?
- Aris vs Omonia Nicosia is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Alphamega Stadium, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.