Apoel Nicosia vs AEL: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 2Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Neo GSP, Levkosía
The Footlab model makes Apoel Nicosia the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for AEL. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Apoel Nicosia vs AEL?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Apoel Nicosia (1,876) and AEL (1,783).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Apoel Nicosia have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; AEL have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Anorthosis(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 22, 2026 | Pafos(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| May 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(home) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Krasava Odintsovo(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 15, 2026 | Akritas(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| May 9, 2026 | Olympiakos(home) | 1-3 | 1. Division |
| May 2, 2026 | Krasava Ypsonas(away) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Apoel Nicosia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 AEL win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | AEL 2-3 Apoel Nicosia | 1. Division |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Apoel Nicosia 1-2 AEL | 1. Division |
| Feb 16, 2025 | AEL 1-2 Apoel Nicosia | 1. Division |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Apoel Nicosia 4-0 AEL | 1. Division |
| Feb 11, 2024 | AEL 1-1 Apoel Nicosia | 1. Division |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Apoel Nicosia 1-0 AEL | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Apoel Nicosia score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; AEL score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apoel Nicosia | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| AEL | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Apoel Nicosia sit 5th in 1. Division (52 points from 36 matches) and AEL sit 8th (44 points from 33 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Apoel Nicosia | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 53 | 45 | 52 |
| 8 | AEL | 33 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 41 | 46 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Apoel Nicosia vs AEL?
- The Footlab model makes Apoel Nicosia the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for AEL.
- Where and when is Apoel Nicosia vs AEL played?
- Apoel Nicosia vs AEL is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Neo GSP, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.