Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 2Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca
The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Nea Salamis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca?
AEK Larnaca starts as the favourite with a 194-point Elo edge (2,011 vs 1,817).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nea Salamis have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; AEK Larnaca have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Krasava Odintsovo(home) | 7-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Anorthosis(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Enosis(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Nieciecza(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Nea Salamis win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 AEK Larnaca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 2-0 Nea Salamis | 1. Division |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Nea Salamis 1-3 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Jan 12, 2024 | Nea Salamis 0-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Sep 30, 2023 | AEK Larnaca 1-1 Nea Salamis | 1. Division |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Nea Salamis 4-0 AEK Larnaca | Cup |
| Dec 21, 2022 | Nea Salamis 0-2 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis on Jan 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nea Salamis score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; AEK Larnaca score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nea Salamis | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| AEK Larnaca | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 62 | 33 | 69 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Nea Salamis.
- Where and when is Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca played?
- Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.