Arsenal Tula vs Nizhny Novgorod: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 29, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Arsenal, Tula
The Footlab model makes Arsenal Tula the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Nizhny Novgorod. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Nizhny Novgorod?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Arsenal Tula (1,772) and Nizhny Novgorod (1,843).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal Tula have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Nizhny Novgorod have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Veles(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(away) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(home) | 4-2 | First League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Veles(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(home) | 5-1 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(home) | 3-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Arsenal Tula win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Nizhny Novgorod win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2024 | Arsenal Tula 0-2 Nizhny Novgorod | Premier League |
| May 29, 2024 | Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 Arsenal Tula | Premier League |
| May 2, 2022 | Arsenal Tula 2-2 Nizhny Novgorod | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Nizhny Novgorod 2-3 Arsenal Tula | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal Tula vs Nizhny Novgorod on Jun 1, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal Tula score 0.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Nizhny Novgorod score 2.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tula | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Nizhny Novgorod | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal Tula sit 9th in First League (11 points from 8 matches) and Nizhny Novgorod sit 1st (21 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 21 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal Tula vs Nizhny Novgorod?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal Tula the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Nizhny Novgorod.
- Where and when is Arsenal Tula vs Nizhny Novgorod played?
- Arsenal Tula vs Nizhny Novgorod is played on May 29, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Arsenal, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.