Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhniy Novgorod
The Footlab model makes Nizhny Novgorod the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Arsenal Tula. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Nizhny Novgorod (1,843) and Arsenal Tula (1,790).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nizhny Novgorod have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Arsenal Tula have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Veles(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(home) | 5-1 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(home) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chelyabinsk(away) | 2-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(away) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FC Sochi(away) | 0-5 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Nizhny Novgorod win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Arsenal Tula win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2024 | Arsenal Tula 0-2 Nizhny Novgorod | Premier League |
| May 29, 2024 | Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 Arsenal Tula | Premier League |
| May 2, 2022 | Arsenal Tula 2-2 Nizhny Novgorod | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Nizhny Novgorod 2-3 Arsenal Tula | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal Tula vs Nizhny Novgorod on Jun 1, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Nizhny Novgorod score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal Tula score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nizhny Novgorod | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| Arsenal Tula | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nizhny Novgorod sit 1st in First League (18 points from 7 matches) and Arsenal Tula sit 9th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 18 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula?
- The Footlab model makes Nizhny Novgorod the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Arsenal Tula.
- Where and when is Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula played?
- Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.