Match

Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21: prediction and stats

Premier League 2 Division OneRegular SeasonKick-off on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Colney Training Centre, Colney, Norfolk

Arsenal U21Derby County U21

The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal U21 the favourite at 52%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Derby County U21. The most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,521 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21?

Arsenal U21 starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,683 vs 1,583).

52%21%27%
Arsenal U21 winDrawDerby County U21 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Arsenal U21

4-2-3-1
  1. 51E. Mooney
  1. 63J. Scanlon
  2. 44I. Ibrahim
  3. 45T. Julienne
  4. 59A. Stevens
  5. 90E. Nwaneri
  1. 40Jaden Dixon
  2. 38B. Clarke
  3. 4M. Salmon
  4. 52J. Ogunnaike
  1. 42K. Ranson

Derby County U21

4-3-3
  1. 10C. Wilson
  2. 9Z. Marsh
  3. 12J. Davidson
  1. 7C. Smith
  2. 11F. Jones
  3. 8M. Mintus
  1. 2I. Gordon
  2. 4A. Osayande
  3. 5Raymond Offor
  4. 3K. Robinson
  1. 1N. Bilokapić

Computed on November 5, 2026 at 02:50 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal U21 have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Derby County U21 have 3, 3 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arsenal U21
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 27, 2026AFC Wimbledon(away)2-1EFL Trophy
Oct 24, 2026Leicester City U21(away)1-4Premier League 2 Division One
Oct 10, 2026Sunderland U21(home)2-2Premier League 2 Division One
Sep 18, 2026Birmingham City U21(away)0-0Premier League 2 Division One
Sep 15, 2026Leyton Orient(away)2-1EFL Trophy
Derby County U21
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 3, 2026Wealdstone(away)2-2National League Cup
Nov 2, 2026Hull City U21(away)0-1Premier League Cup
Oct 26, 2026Norwich City U21(home)3-4Premier League 2 Division One
Oct 19, 2026Birmingham City U21(away)4-0Premier League 2 Division One
Oct 13, 2026Scunthorpe(away)2-2National League Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Arsenal U21 win, 1 draw, 0 Derby County U21 wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 26, 2025Derby County U21 0-1 Arsenal U21Premier League 2 Division One
Apr 7, 2025Arsenal U21 2-2 Derby County U21Premier League 2 Division One

Last archived meeting: Derby County U21 vs Arsenal U21 on Sep 26, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Arsenal U21 score 1.2 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Derby County U21 score 1.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Arsenal U211.22.3212/1511/15
Derby County U211.92.7111/1513/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arsenal U21 sit 25th in Premier League 2 Division One (4 points from 6 matches) and Derby County U21 sit 18th (7 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
18Derby County U21621316167
25Arsenal U2160427134

A question about Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21?
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal U21 the favourite at 52%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Derby County U21.
Where and when is Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21 played?
Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21 is played on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Colney Training Centre, in the Premier League 2 Division One.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Arsenal U21 and Derby County U21

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