Where and when is Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21 played?

Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21 is played on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Colney Training Centre, in the Premier League 2 Division One.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21: prediction and stats

Premier League 2 Division OneRegular SeasonKick-off on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Colney Training Centre, Colney, Norfolk

Arsenal U21

Derby County U21

The Footlab model makes Arsenal U21 the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Derby County U21. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21?

Arsenal U21 starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,779 vs 1,668).

Arsenal U21 win54 %

Draw22 %

Derby County U21 win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal U21 have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Derby County U21 have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arsenal U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Crystal Palace U21(home)	1-1	Premier League 2 Division One
Aug 18, 2026	Barnet(away)	1-5	EFL Trophy
Apr 25, 2026	Manchester City U21(away)	1-3	Premier League 2 Division One
Apr 13, 2026	Crystal Palace U21(away)	0-2	Premier League 2 Division One
Apr 4, 2026	West Bromwich Albion U21(home)	1-0	Premier League 2 Division One

Derby County U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Reading U21(away)	3-1	Premier League 2 Division One
Aug 18, 2026	FC Halifax Town(away)	2-6	National League Cup
Aug 14, 2026	Hull City U21(home)	1-4	Premier League Cup
Aug 1, 2026	Carlisle(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Apr 27, 2026	Brentford U21(away)	0-2	Professional Development League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Arsenal U21 win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Derby County U21 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Sep 26, 2025	Derby County U21 0-1 Arsenal U21	Premier League 2 Division One
Apr 7, 2025	Arsenal U21 2-2 Derby County U21	Premier League 2 Division One

Last archived meeting: Derby County U21 vs Arsenal U21 on Sep 26, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Arsenal U21 score 1.2 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Derby County U21 score 1.3 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arsenal U21	1.2	2.0	5	7/15	8/15
Derby County U21	1.3	2.3	3	9/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arsenal U21 sit 12th in Premier League 2 Division One (1 points from 1 matches) and Derby County U21 sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Derby County U21	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
12	Arsenal U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21?: The Footlab model makes Arsenal U21 the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Derby County U21.
Where and when is Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21 played?: Arsenal U21 vs Derby County U21 is played on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Colney Training Centre, in the Premier League 2 Division One.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.