Aserri FC vs AD Carmelita: prediction and stats
Liga de AscensoRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Aserri FC the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for AD Carmelita. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aserri FC vs AD Carmelita?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Aserri FC (1,465) and AD Carmelita (1,499).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aserri FC have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; AD Carmelita have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Municipal Grecia(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Quepos Cambute(away) | 1-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guadalupe FC(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Santa Ana(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Guadalupe FC(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Futbol Consultants Moravia(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santa Ana(home) | 2-3 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 2, 2026 | CS Uruguay(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Aserri FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aserri FC win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 AD Carmelita win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Aserri FC 0-0 AD Carmelita | Liga de Ascenso |
| Feb 15, 2026 | AD Carmelita 2-2 Aserri FC | Liga de Ascenso |
| Nov 2, 2025 | AD Carmelita 1-1 Aserri FC | Liga de Ascenso |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Aserri FC 1-0 AD Carmelita | Liga de Ascenso |
| Apr 26, 2022 | Aserri FC 2-3 AD Carmelita | Liga de Ascenso |
| Apr 19, 2022 | AD Carmelita 1-0 Aserri FC | Liga de Ascenso |
Last archived meeting: Aserri FC vs AD Carmelita on Mar 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aserri FC score 1.1 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; AD Carmelita score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aserri FC | 1.1 | 2.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| AD Carmelita | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aserri FC sit 4th in Liga de Ascenso (7 points from 6 matches) and AD Carmelita sit 9th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aserri FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | AD Carmelita | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aserri FC vs AD Carmelita?
- The Footlab model makes Aserri FC the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for AD Carmelita.
- Where and when is Aserri FC vs AD Carmelita played?
- Aserri FC vs AD Carmelita is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Liga de Ascenso.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.