Aşgabat vs Nebitci: prediction and stats
Ýokary LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Sportkompleks Gökje, Ashgabat
The Footlab AI model makes Aşgabat the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Nebitci. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aşgabat wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aşgabat vs Nebitci?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Aşgabat (1,279) and Nebitci (1,334).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aşgabat vs Nebitci
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aşgabat
Not enough data to predict the Aşgabat lineup.
Nebitci
4-3-3- 10H. Amanmämmedow
- 11M. Garadanow
- 6A. Metdaýew
- 7A. Ylýasow
- 5N. Mammedaliýew
- 14A. Garajaýew
- 4M. Saparow
- 17D. Orazguliýew
- 21B. Guldurdyýew
- 20Y. Magtymow
- 1A. Kerimow
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aşgabat have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Nebitci have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(home) | 2-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ahal(home) | 3-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(home) | 1-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Merw(away) | 2-3 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nebitci(away) | 1-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Şagadam(home) | 3-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(home) | 2-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ahal(away) | 0-3 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Arkadag(home) | 2-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aşgabat(home) | 1-1 | Ýokary Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aşgabat win, 1 draw, 4 Nebitci wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nebitci 1-1 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| May 24, 2026 | Aşgabat 1-0 Nebitci | Ýokary Liga |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Nebitci 1-0 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Nebitci 1-0 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Aşgabat 1-2 Nebitci | Ýokary Liga |
| May 31, 2025 | Nebitci 2-0 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Aşgabat score 1.5 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Nebitci score 1.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aşgabat | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Nebitci | 1.0 | 1.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aşgabat sit 7th in Ýokary Liga (15 points from 21 matches) and Nebitci sit 5th (19 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nebitci | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 38 | 19 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 48 | 15 |
A question about Aşgabat vs Nebitci?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aşgabat vs Nebitci?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aşgabat the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Nebitci.
- Where and when is Aşgabat vs Nebitci played?
- Aşgabat vs Nebitci is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Sportkompleks Gökje, in the Ýokary Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.