Ashdod vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat: prediction and stats
Liga LeumitRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Yud-Alef Stadium, Ashdod
The Footlab model makes Maccabi Kiryat Gat the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Ashdod. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ashdod vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat?
Maccabi Kiryat Gat starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,828 vs 1,720).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ashdod have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Maccabi Kiryat Gat have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa(home) | 1-0 | Liga Leumit |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Hapoel Afula(away) | 0-2 | Liga Leumit |
| May 18, 2026 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona(away) | 3-2 | Ligat Ha'al |
| May 13, 2026 | Hapoel Katamon(home) | 0-1 | Ligat Ha'al |
| May 10, 2026 | Hapoel Haifa(away) | 0-1 | Ligat Ha'al |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion(home) | 1-2 | Liga Leumit |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Hapoel Acre(away) | 2-0 | Liga Leumit |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon(home) | 1-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Kfar Saba 1928(away) | 4-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Maccabi Yavne(home) | 2-1 | Liga Alef |
How many goals should we expect?
Ashdod score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Maccabi Kiryat Gat score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashdod | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 2.4 | 1.1 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ashdod sit 12th in Liga Leumit (0 points from 1 matches) and Maccabi Kiryat Gat sit 7th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Ashdod | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ashdod vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat?
- The Footlab model makes Maccabi Kiryat Gat the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Ashdod.
- Where and when is Ashdod vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat played?
- Ashdod vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat is played on October 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Yud-Alef Stadium, in the Liga Leumit.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 16, 2026Hapoel AfulavsMaccabi Herzliya
- Oct 16, 2026Maccabi Ahi NazarethvsHapoel Kfar Saba
- Oct 16, 2026Hapoel Ra'ananavsBnei Yehuda
- Oct 16, 2026Hapoel Kfar ShalemvsHapoel Acre
- Oct 16, 2026Maccabi Bnei RainavsHapoel Rishon LeZion
- Oct 16, 2026Maccabi Kabilio JaffavsIroni Modi'in
- Oct 16, 2026Kiryat Yam SCvsKafr Qasim