Asteras Stavros vs Thiva: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 5Group 5 - 22Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Asteras Stavros the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Thiva. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Asteras Stavros vs Thiva?
Asteras Stavros starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,509 vs 1,395).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Asteras Stavros have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Thiva have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Elassona(away) | 1-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Tilikratis(home) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Aris Filiates(away) | 0-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Lamia(home) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Trikala(away) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Agios Nikolaos(home) | 0-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Nea Ionia(away) | 0-6 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Marko(home) | 1-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Ethnikos Piraeus(home) | 1-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Ilisiakos(away) | 3-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Asteras Stavros score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Thiva score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Stavros | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Thiva | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Asteras Stavros vs Thiva?
- The Footlab model makes Asteras Stavros the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Thiva.
- Where and when is Asteras Stavros vs Thiva played?
- Asteras Stavros vs Thiva is played on February 28, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.