Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 11Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Gipedo Messiniakos, Kalamata
The Footlab model makes AEK Athens FC the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Kalamata. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC starts as the favourite with a 212-point Elo edge (2,122 vs 1,910).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kalamata have 12 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; AEK Athens FC have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 2-3 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 4-2 | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Volos NFC(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 1-0 | Super League 2 |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Marko(away) | 0-0 | Super League 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 4-0 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 12, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-2 | Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kallithea(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Kalamata win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 AEK Athens FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2011 | Kalamata 0-1 AEK Athens FC | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC on Dec 22, 2011
How many goals should we expect?
Kalamata score 1.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; AEK Athens FC score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalamata | 1.7 | 0.5 | 11 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| AEK Athens FC | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kalamata sit 9th in Super League 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and AEK Athens FC sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Kalamata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Athens FC the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Kalamata.
- Where and when is Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC played?
- Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Gipedo Messiniakos, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.