Aston Villa vs Chelsea: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Chelsea. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aston Villa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 5,387 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Aston Villa (2,142) and Chelsea (2,102).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 44J. Manzambi
- 7J. McGinn
- 47Alysson Edward
- 27L. Goretzka
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 22I. Maatsen
- 14Pau Torres
- 2M. Cash
- 1Z. Suzuki
Chelsea
4-2-3-1- 7Pedro Neto
- 17M. Rogers
- 25M. Caicedo
- 10C. Palmer
- 45R. Lavia
- 14J. Henderson
- 6L. Colwill
- 3W. Fofana
- 2M. Palestra
- 34Joshua Kofi Acheampong
- 39M. Penders
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 05:03 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Chelsea have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Everton(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aston Villa wins, 1 draw, 3 Chelsea wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-4 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Chelsea 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Chelsea 3-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Aston Villa 2-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Feb 7, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Chelsea on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chelsea score 2.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Chelsea | 2.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 10th in Premier League (13 points from 10 matches) and Chelsea sit 5th (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 16 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 13 |
A question about Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Chelsea.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Chelsea played?
- Aston Villa vs Chelsea is played on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.