Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 6Kick-off on December 8, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paris Saint Germain wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,444 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 3, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (2,377 vs 2,216).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 7J. McGinn
- 35João Gomes
- 8B. Kamara
- 44J. Manzambi
- 10E. Buendía
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 14Pau Torres
- 2M. Cash
- 22I. Maatsen
- 1Z. Suzuki
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3- 11M. Akliouche
- 14D. Doué
- 24Senny Mayulu
- 17Vitinha
- 8Fabián Ruiz
- 87João Neves
- 2A. Hakimi
- 21L. Hernández
- 51W. Pacho
- 6I. Zabarnyi
- 39M. Safonov
Computed on November 3, 2026 at 09:57 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Paris Saint Germain have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Viking(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Villarreal(away) | 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Le Havre(away) | 5-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 4-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Aston Villa win, 0 draws, 2 Paris Saint Germain wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Aston Villa | UEFA Super Cup |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Aston Villa 3-2 Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Aston Villa | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa on Aug 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Paris Saint Germain score 2.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 2.9 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 2nd in UEFA Champions League (9 points from 3 matches) and Paris Saint Germain sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
A question about Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain played?
- Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain is played on December 8, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.