Match

Atalanta vs Lecce: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

AtalantaLecce

The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Lecce. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,398 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atalanta vs Lecce?

Atalanta starts as the favourite with a 219-point Elo edge (2,061 vs 1,841).

62%23%15%
Atalanta winDrawLecce win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Atalanta vs Lecce

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Atalanta

4-3-3
  1. 17C. De Ketelaere
  2. 11J. Rowe
  3. 90N. Krstović
  1. 13Éderson
  2. 19F. Kessié
  3. 10L. Samardžić
  1. 42G. Scalvini
  2. 16R. Bellanova
  3. 31T. Kristensen
  4. 77D. Zappacosta
  1. 29M. Carnesecchi

Lecce

4-3-3
  1. 50S. Pierotti
  2. 22Paco Esteban
  3. 7A. Ahmed Fatah
  1. 29L. Coulibaly
  2. 20I. Ilić
  3. 14Y. Maleh
  1. 17Danilo Veiga
  2. 25A. Gallo
  3. 5J. Siebert
  4. 44Tiago Gabriel
  1. 30W. Falcone

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atalanta have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Lecce have 7, 1 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atalanta
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026Venezia(home)3-1Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Juventus(away)0-2Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Cagliari(home)1-2Serie A
Sep 5, 2026AS Roma(away)1-2Serie A
Aug 31, 2026Bologna(home)1-0Serie A
Lecce
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Bologna(home)1-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026AC Milan(away)0-3Serie A
Sep 13, 2026Monza(home)3-2Serie A
Sep 7, 2026Cagliari(away)0-1Serie A
Aug 31, 2026AS Roma(home)0-4Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Atalanta wins, 1 draw, 0 Lecce wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 6, 2026Lecce 0-3 AtalantaSerie A
Sep 14, 2025Atalanta 4-1 LecceSerie A
Apr 27, 2025Atalanta 1-1 LecceSerie A
Aug 19, 2024Lecce 0-4 AtalantaSerie A
May 18, 2024Lecce 0-2 AtalantaSerie A
Dec 30, 2023Atalanta 1-0 LecceSerie A

Last archived meeting: Lecce vs Atalanta on Apr 6, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atalanta score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lecce score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Atalanta1.20.967/157/15
Lecce1.31.545/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atalanta sit 10th in Serie A (9 points from 6 matches) and Lecce sit 13th (6 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Atalanta6303889
13Lecce62046126

A question about Atalanta vs Lecce?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Lecce?
The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Lecce.
Where and when is Atalanta vs Lecce played?
Atalanta vs Lecce is played on May 23, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Gewiss Stadium, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Atalanta and Lecce

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