Atalanta vs Pafos: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa Conference LeagueLeague Stage - 1Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo
The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Pafos. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atalanta wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atalanta vs Pafos?
On Elo ratings, Atalanta has 2,113 points and Pafos 2,041.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atalanta vs Pafos
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atalanta
4-3-3- 17C. De Ketelaere
- 9G. Scamacca
- 11J. Rowe
- 13Éderson
- 10L. Samardžić
- 19F. Kessié
- 42G. Scalvini
- 16R. Bellanova
- 3O. Kossounou
- 23S. Kolašinac
- 29M. Carnesecchi
Pafos
4-5-1- 18Lelê
- 88Pêpê Rodrigues
- 13N. Moumi Ngamaleu
- 26I. Šunjić
- 12K. Sema
- 30V. Dragomir
- 4David Luiz
- 14N. Ioannou
- 5David Goldar
- 7Bruno Felipe
- 99R. Majecki
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 09:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atalanta have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Pafos have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | AEL(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AEK Larnaca(away) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Olympiakos(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 1-0 | Super Cup |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Karmiotissa(away) | 3-0 | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Atalanta score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Pafos score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Pafos | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Atalanta vs Pafos?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Pafos?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atalanta the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Pafos.
- Where and when is Atalanta vs Pafos played?
- Atalanta vs Pafos is played on October 15, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Gewiss Stadium, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.