Match

Gent vs Aarhus: prediction and stats

UEFA Europa Conference LeagueLeague Stage - 1Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC)Planet Group Arena, Gent

GentAarhus

The Footlab AI model makes Gent the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Aarhus. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Gent vs Aarhus?

On Elo ratings, Gent has 2,071 points and Aarhus 1,988.

64%21%15%
Gent winDrawAarhus win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Gent vs Aarhus

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Gent

3-4-2-1
  1. 47J. Y. Vergara Ortega
  1. 20Tiago Araújo
  2. 17M. Delorge-Knieper
  3. 11M. Sonko
  4. 27T. De Vlieger
  5. 57M. Volckaert
  6. 7M. Balikwisha
  1. 16C. Burgess
  2. 44S. Van der Heyden
  3. 5M. Ngom
  1. 33D. Roef

Aarhus

3-4-2-1
  1. 13J. Serra
  1. 31T. Bech
  2. 23M. Anderson
  3. 4M. Knudsen
  4. 10Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad
  5. 29R. Carstensen
  6. 39Frederik Emmery
  1. 25C. Rösler
  2. 3D. Grétarsson
  3. 14T. Mølgaard
  1. 21M. Hedenstad Christiansen

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gent have 8 wins, 7 draws and 0 defeats; Aarhus have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Gent
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 18, 2026Standard Liege(home)2-1Jupiler Pro League
Sep 13, 2026Genk(away)1-1Jupiler Pro League
Sep 6, 2026Cercle Brugge(away)3-0Jupiler Pro League
Sep 3, 2026OH Leuven(home)1-0Jupiler Pro League
Aug 30, 2026Club Brugge KV(home)2-1Jupiler Pro League
Aarhus
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 2, 2026Vendsyssel FF(home)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 20, 2026AC Horsens(away)2-2Superliga
Sep 16, 2026Skjold Sæby(away)6-1DBU Pokalen
Sep 13, 2026FC Nordsjaelland(away)0-2Superliga
Sep 5, 2026Silkeborg(home)2-2Superliga

How many goals should we expect?

Gent score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Aarhus score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Gent1.50.878/157/15
Aarhus1.71.9111/1513/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Gent vs Aarhus?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Gent vs Aarhus?
The Footlab AI model makes Gent the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Aarhus.
Where and when is Gent vs Aarhus played?
Gent vs Aarhus is played on October 15, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC) at Planet Group Arena, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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