Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 20Kick-off on November 12, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Atletico Balboa the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Inca Aruba. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Atletico Balboa (1,577) and Inca Aruba (1,507).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Atletico Balboa have 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Inca Aruba have 0, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fuerte San Francisco(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Águila(away) | 4-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FAS(away) | 1-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cacahuatique(away) | 2-4 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Primera Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Firpo(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Platense(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FAS(home) | 0-4 | Primera Division |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Municipal Limeño(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Balboa score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 6; Inca Aruba score 0.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Balboa | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 3/6 | 2/6 |
| Inca Aruba | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 2/6 | 3/6 |
Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Balboa sit 5th in Primera Division (9 points from 6 matches) and Inca Aruba sit 12th (1 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atletico Balboa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 12 | Inca Aruba | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Balboa the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Inca Aruba.
- Where and when is Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba played?
- Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba is played on November 12, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC), in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.