Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 9Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Atletico Balboa the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Inca Aruba. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Inca Aruba (1,507) and Atletico Balboa (1,577).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Inca Aruba have 0 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Atletico Balboa have 2, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Primera Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Firpo(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Platense(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FAS(home) | 0-4 | Primera Division |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Municipal Limeño(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fuerte San Francisco(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Águila(away) | 4-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FAS(away) | 1-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cacahuatique(away) | 2-4 | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Inca Aruba score 0.3 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 6; Atletico Balboa score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inca Aruba | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 2/6 | 3/6 |
| Atletico Balboa | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 3/6 | 2/6 |
Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Inca Aruba sit 12th in Primera Division (1 points from 6 matches) and Atletico Balboa sit 5th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atletico Balboa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 12 | Inca Aruba | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Balboa the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Inca Aruba.
- Where and when is Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa played?
- Inca Aruba vs Atletico Balboa is played on September 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC), in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.