Atlético Choloma vs Génesis: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalApertura - 11Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Rubén Deras, Choloma
The Footlab AI model makes Génesis the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Atlético Choloma. The most likely score is 1-1. If Génesis wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Choloma vs Génesis?
Génesis starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,643 vs 1,539).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atlético Choloma vs Génesis
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atlético Choloma
4-3-3- 2K. Álvarez
- 19Olvin Zamora
- 13Á. Villatoro
- 29E. Florez
- 10J. Canales
- 11Alvarado
- 23H. Castillo
- 18J. Quejada
- 21J. Capeluto
- 28J. Barrios
- 24J. Pineda
Génesis
4-3-3- 9E. Alderete
- 24C. Fonseca
- 11B. Felix
- 15E. Maldonado
- 8R. Sander
- 29Angel Alvarado
- 44M. Gamboa
- 12Gabriel Araújo
- 2A. Vargas
- 66K. Perez
- 31R. A. Balanta
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 10:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Choloma have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Génesis have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | CD Motagua(away) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Estrella Roja(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm(away) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Olancho(home) | 0-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Real Espana(away) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | CD Olimpia(home) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Olancho(home) | 0-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 13, 2026 | CD Motagua(away) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Juticalpa(away) | 3-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 29, 2026 | CD Marathon(home) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Atlético Choloma win, 1 draw, 3 Génesis wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Génesis 2-0 Atlético Choloma | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Atlético Choloma 1-2 Génesis | Liga Nacional |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Génesis 0-0 Atlético Choloma | Liga Nacional |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Génesis 1-0 Atlético Choloma | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Atlético Choloma 2-1 Génesis | Liga Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Génesis vs Atlético Choloma on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Choloma score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Génesis score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Choloma | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Génesis | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlético Choloma sit 11th in Liga Nacional (7 points from 9 matches) and Génesis sit 6th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Génesis | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 7 |
A question about Atlético Choloma vs Génesis?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Choloma vs Génesis?
- The Footlab AI model makes Génesis the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Atlético Choloma.
- Where and when is Atlético Choloma vs Génesis played?
- Atlético Choloma vs Génesis is played on October 24, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Rubén Deras, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.