Atlético Madrid II vs Real Murcia: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 3Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Miniestadio Cerro del Espino, Majadahonda
The Footlab model makes Atlético Madrid II the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Real Murcia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Madrid II vs Real Murcia?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Atlético Madrid II (1,949) and Real Murcia (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Madrid II have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Real Murcia have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gimnástica Segoviana(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Ponferradina(home) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Play Offs |
| May 30, 2026 | Ponferradina(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Play Offs |
| May 23, 2026 | Algeciras(home) | 3-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albacete(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cieza(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atlético Madrid II win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Real Murcia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Real Murcia 2-1 Atlético Madrid II | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Atlético Madrid II 1-1 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Atlético Madrid II 2-1 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Real Murcia 1-1 Atlético Madrid II | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 25, 2024 | Atlético Madrid II 3-1 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 2, 2024 | Real Murcia 1-1 Atlético Madrid II | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Real Murcia vs Atlético Madrid II on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Madrid II score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Real Murcia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid II | 1.9 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Real Murcia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlético Madrid II sit 3rd in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (67 points from 38 matches) and Real Murcia sit 10th (52 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atlético Madrid II | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 64 | 44 | 67 |
| 10 | Real Murcia | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 40 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Madrid II vs Real Murcia?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Madrid II the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Real Murcia.
- Where and when is Atlético Madrid II vs Real Murcia played?
- Atlético Madrid II vs Real Murcia is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.