Teruel vs Real Jaén: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 3Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Pinila, Teruel
The Footlab model makes Teruel the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Real Jaén. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Teruel vs Real Jaén?
Real Jaén starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,972 vs 1,864).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Teruel have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Real Jaén have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Valencia U21(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Castellón II(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Petro de Luanda(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 22, 2026 | Marbella(away) | 1-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 16, 2026 | Sanluqueño(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2026 | Atlético Baleares(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Atlético Baleares(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 17, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
How many goals should we expect?
Teruel score 0.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Jaén score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teruel | 0.5 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Real Jaén | 1.4 | 0.9 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Teruel | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 33 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Teruel vs Real Jaén?
- The Footlab model makes Teruel the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Real Jaén.
- Where and when is Teruel vs Real Jaén played?
- Teruel vs Real Jaén is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Pinila, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.