Match

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas: prediction and stats

Copa ColombiaSemi-finalsKick-off on November 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín

Atletico NacionalOnce Caldas

The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Once Caldas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Nacional wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 6,059 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Atletico Nacional starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,936 vs 1,836).

46%28%26%
Atletico Nacional winDrawOnce Caldas win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Atletico Nacional

4-2-3-1
  1. 29A. Sarmiento
  1. 80J. Zapata
  2. 10E. Cardona
  3. 13N. Rodríguez
  4. 22E. Cabrera
  5. 8M. Uribe
  1. 15A. Reyes
  2. 16W. Tesillo
  3. 20M. Casco
  4. 6A. Román
  1. 34F. Armani

Once Caldas

4-2-3-1
  1. 14J. Zapata
  1. 42J. Quiñónes
  2. 9Pipe Gómez
  3. 23A. Colorado
  4. 5J. Nieto
  5. 7M. Barrios
  1. 30D. Londoño
  2. 2J. Cardona
  3. 33J. Patiño
  4. 22J. Cuesta
  1. 99J. Parra

Computed on November 15, 2026 at 12:10 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Nacional have 7 wins, 7 draws and 1 defeat; Once Caldas have 7, 5 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atletico Nacional
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 14, 2026Once Caldas(home)1-1Primera A
Nov 11, 2026Once Caldas(away)1-1Copa Colombia
Nov 8, 2026Juventud Palmeiras(away)2-2Copa Perú
Nov 7, 2026Deportivo Pereira(home)4-3Primera A
Nov 3, 2026Bucaramanga(away)1-1Primera A
Once Caldas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 14, 2026Atletico Nacional(away)1-1Primera A
Nov 11, 2026Atletico Nacional(home)1-1Copa Colombia
Nov 7, 2026Águilas Doradas(home)1-0Primera A
Nov 2, 2026Santa Fe(away)2-0Copa Colombia
Oct 28, 2026Alianza Valledupar(home)1-0Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atletico Nacional wins, 2 draws, 1 Once Caldas win.

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 14, 2026Atletico Nacional 1-1 Once CaldasPrimera A
Nov 11, 2026Once Caldas 1-1 Atletico NacionalCopa Colombia
May 1, 2026Once Caldas 1-0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Oct 22, 2025Atletico Nacional 2-0 Once CaldasCopa Colombia
Oct 10, 2025Once Caldas 0-1 Atletico NacionalCopa Colombia
Jul 12, 2025Once Caldas 1-3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A

Last archived meeting: Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas on Nov 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atletico Nacional score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Once Caldas score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Atletico Nacional1.91.1311/157/15
Once Caldas1.10.777/152/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Once Caldas.
Where and when is Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas played?
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas is played on November 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Copa Colombia.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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