Aurora vs Xelajú: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio del Ejército, Ciudad de Guatemala
The Footlab model makes Aurora the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Xelajú. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aurora vs Xelajú?
Xelajú starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,701 vs 1,576).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aurora have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Xelajú have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Suchitepéquez(home) | 3-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo San Pedro(away) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Comunicaciones(home) | 3-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Xelajú(away) | 1-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guastatoya(home) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Municipal(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Diriangén(home) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Plaza Amador(away) | 2-5 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Malacateco(away) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aurora(home) | 3-1 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Aurora win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Xelajú win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Xelajú 3-1 Aurora | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Aurora 0-0 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Xelajú 4-0 Aurora | Liga Nacional |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Aurora 3-2 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Xelajú 2-2 Aurora | Liga Nacional |
How many goals should we expect?
Aurora score 0.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Xelajú score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Xelajú | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aurora sit 11th in Liga Nacional (20 points from 22 matches) and Xelajú sit 1st (39 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xelajú | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 19 | 39 |
| 11 | Aurora | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 30 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aurora vs Xelajú?
- The Footlab model makes Aurora the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Xelajú.
- Where and when is Aurora vs Xelajú played?
- Aurora vs Xelajú is played on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio del Ejército, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.