Auxerre vs Toulouse: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 14Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
The Footlab AI model makes Auxerre the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-1. If Auxerre wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auxerre vs Toulouse?
On Elo ratings, Auxerre has 1,987 points and Toulouse 2,020.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Auxerre vs Toulouse
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Auxerre
3-4-2-1- 9C. Archer
- 10D. Namaso
- 27L. Sy
- 5K. Danois
- 22F. Oppegård
- 8N. Ahamada
- 21R. Faivre
- 92C. Akpa
- 46A. Piedfort
- 4A. Tuanzebe
- 23M. Diop
Toulouse
4-2-3-1- 13J. Russell-Rowe
- 23C. Cásseres
- 8T. Jørgensen
- 37Y. Azizi
- 20C. Tengstedt
- 6A. Vossah
- 12C. Tapé
- 3M. McKenzie
- 22R. Messali
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 16G. Restes
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 05:01 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auxerre have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Toulouse have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 1-4 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Clermont Foot(home) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nice(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Lyon(away) | 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Auxerre win, 3 draws, 2 Toulouse wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Toulouse 0-0 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Auxerre 1-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Auxerre 2-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Toulouse 2-0 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| May 27, 2023 | Toulouse 1-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Auxerre 0-5 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Auxerre score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Toulouse score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Toulouse | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auxerre sit 16th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Toulouse sit 15th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 6 |
A question about Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Toulouse?
- The Footlab AI model makes Auxerre the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Auxerre vs Toulouse played?
- Auxerre vs Toulouse is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.