Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bank Respublika Arena, Masazyr (Masazir)
The Footlab model makes Azerbaijan the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Lithuania. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Azerbaijan (1,339) and Lithuania (1,269).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Azerbaijan have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Lithuania have 1, 5 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | San Marino(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Malta(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Sierra Leone(home) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | St. Lucia(home) | 6-1 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 16, 2025 | France(home) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Estonia(away) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Latvia(home) | 1-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Georgia(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Moldova(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Netherlands(away) | 0-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Azerbaijan win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Lithuania win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2019 | Azerbaijan 0-0 Lithuania | Friendlies |
Last archived meeting: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania on Mar 25, 2019
How many goals should we expect?
Azerbaijan score 0.9 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lithuania score 0.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Lithuania | 0.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
- The Footlab model makes Azerbaijan the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Lithuania.
- Where and when is Azerbaijan vs Lithuania played?
- Azerbaijan vs Lithuania is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bank Respublika Arena, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.