Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: result 1-0 and analysis
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague D - 4Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Neftçi Arena, Baku
Full time
What was the result of Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Azerbaijan won 1-0 on October 4, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 25′A. XaybulayevAzerbaijan
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Azerbaijan win at 41%: prediction correct. Most likely score announced: 1-1. Actual score: 1-0.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Azerbaijan
3-4-3- 18Oruc Məmmədov
- 10M. Emreli
- 7T. Bayramov
- 3R. Abbasov
- 20A. Isaev
- 6A. Xaybulayev
- 19T. Mütəllimov
- 2R. Daşdəmirov
- 15B. Hüseynov
- 4R. Məmmədov
- 1E. Balayev
Lithuania
3-4-3- 7A. Dolžnikov
- 10A. Kučys
- 14V. Slivka
- 13J. Lasickas
- 15G. Gineitis
- 6M. Vorobjovas
- 21A. Lickūnas
- 20R. Lekiatas
- 3E. Utkus
- 18V. Armalas
- 12T. Švedkauskas
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Azerbaijan have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Lithuania have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Liechtenstein(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Lithuania(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Tajikistan(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 9, 2026 | San Marino(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Malta(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Azerbaijan(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Liechtenstein(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Estonia(away) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Latvia(home) | 1-1 | Baltic Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Azerbaijan wins, 2 draws, 0 Lithuania wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 25, 2019 | Azerbaijan 0-0 Lithuania | Friendlies |
Last archived meeting: Lithuania vs Azerbaijan on Sep 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Azerbaijan score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Lithuania score 0.9 and concede 1.5.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Lithuania | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Azerbaijan sit 1st in UEFA Nations League (5 points from 3 matches) and Lithuania sit 2nd (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
A question about Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy