Malta vs Andorra: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ta'Qali National Stadium, Ta'Qali
The Footlab model makes Malta the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Andorra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malta vs Andorra?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Malta (1,274) and Andorra (1,247).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malta have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Andorra have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Slovakia(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Luxembourg(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Luxembourg(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Poland(home) | 2-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kosovo(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Liechtenstein(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| May 29, 2026 | Iraq(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | San Marino(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Montenegro(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Malta win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Andorra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2024 | Malta 0-0 Andorra | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Andorra 0-1 Malta | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 14, 2020 | Malta 3-1 Andorra | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 10, 2020 | Andorra 0-0 Malta | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Malta score 0.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Andorra score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malta | 0.7 | 2.1 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Andorra | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malta vs Andorra?
- The Footlab model makes Malta the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Andorra.
- Where and when is Malta vs Andorra played?
- Malta vs Andorra is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ta'Qali National Stadium, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.