Match

Bahardar vs Mebrat Hayl: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bahir Dar Stadium, Bahir Dar

BahardarMebrat Hayl

The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 30% for Bahardar, 36% for a draw, 34% for Mebrat Hayl. The most likely score is 0-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 4,836 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bahardar vs Mebrat Hayl?

A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Bahardar (1,563) and Mebrat Hayl (1,524).

30%36%34%
Bahardar winDrawMebrat Hayl win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bahardar vs Mebrat Hayl

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bahardar

Not enough data to predict the Bahardar lineup.

Mebrat Hayl

4-3-3
  1. 7A. Tiruneh
  2. 9H. Hussien
  3. 10G. Eyob
  1. 14A. Tesfaye
  2. 17H. Shewalem
  3. 5H. Gebrehiwot
  1. 13B. B. Babulo
  2. 4B. Woldeyohannes
  3. 21Y. Yemane
  4. 31B. Asresahegn
  1. 45A. Tesfaye

Computed on November 7, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bahardar have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Mebrat Hayl have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bahardar
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Fasil Ketema(away)2-2Premier League
Oct 22, 2026Welayta Dicha(away)3-1Premier League
Oct 16, 2026Halaba Ketema(away)0-1Premier League
Oct 11, 2026Hadiya Hosaena(away)1-0Premier League
Jul 3, 2026Ethiopia Nigd Bank(away)2-2Premier League
Mebrat Hayl
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Kedus Giorgis(home)0-1Premier League
Oct 25, 2026Ethiopia Bunna(away)1-0Premier League
Oct 20, 2026Sheger Ketema(home)1-0Premier League
Oct 16, 2026Negelle Arsi(home)0-0Premier League
Oct 9, 2026Adama Kenema(home)0-1Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bahardar wins, 1 draw, 1 Mebrat Hayl win.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 3, 2026Mebrat Hayl 0-0 BahardarPremier League
Nov 22, 2025Bahardar 2-0 Mebrat HaylPremier League
May 2, 2025Bahardar 2-0 Mebrat HaylPremier League
Oct 22, 2024Mebrat Hayl 1-0 BahardarPremier League
Mar 8, 2023Mebrat Hayl 1-3 BahardarPremier League
Sep 30, 2022Bahardar 2-1 Mebrat HaylPremier League

Last archived meeting: Mebrat Hayl vs Bahardar on Apr 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bahardar score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mebrat Hayl score 0.8 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 23% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bahardar0.90.965/153/15
Mebrat Hayl0.80.856/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bahardar sit 7th in Premier League (7 points from 4 matches) and Mebrat Hayl sit 8th (7 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Bahardar4211647
8Mebrat Hayl5212227

A question about Bahardar vs Mebrat Hayl?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bahardar vs Mebrat Hayl?
The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 30% for Bahardar, 36% for a draw, 34% for Mebrat Hayl.
Where and when is Bahardar vs Mebrat Hayl played?
Bahardar vs Mebrat Hayl is played on December 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bahir Dar Stadium, in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 23% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Bahardar and Mebrat Hayl

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