Match

Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Addis Ababa Stadium, Addis Abeba

MekelakeyaNegelle Arsi

The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 31% for Mekelakeya, 36% for a draw, 33% for Negelle Arsi. The most likely score is 0-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?

A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Mekelakeya (1,589) and Negelle Arsi (1,584).

31%36%33%
Mekelakeya winDrawNegelle Arsi win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Mekelakeya

4-3-3
  1. 27A. Yigzaw
  2. 14Mohammed Abera
  3. 35C. Kudjoe
  1. 7Bereket Desta Dana
  2. 10Abdulkarim Worku
  3. 19C. Gugsa
  1. 6G. Hagos
  2. 34N. Hailu
  3. 2F. Jemal
  4. 22C. Menberu
  1. 1Nafian Legason Alionzi

Negelle Arsi

Not enough data to predict the Negelle Arsi lineup.

Computed on November 6, 2026 at 09:46 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mekelakeya have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Negelle Arsi have 7, 6 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mekelakeya
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Sidama Bunna(away)0-0Premier League
Oct 27, 2026Ethiopian Medhin(away)3-1Premier League
Oct 22, 2026Gamo Chencha(away)1-0Premier League
Oct 18, 2026Ethiopia Nigd Bank(home)0-1Premier League
Oct 11, 2026Awassa Kenema(away)1-0Premier League
Negelle Arsi
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 30, 2026Sheger Ketema(away)2-1Premier League
Oct 26, 2026Adama Kenema(home)1-0Premier League
Oct 21, 2026Ethiopia Bunna(away)3-0Premier League
Oct 16, 2026Mebrat Hayl(away)0-0Premier League
Oct 10, 2026Kedus Giorgis(away)1-1Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Mekelakeya win, 0 draws, 1 Negelle Arsi win.

DateScoreCompetition
May 14, 2026Mekelakeya 4-0 Negelle ArsiPremier League
Jan 4, 2026Negelle Arsi 2-0 MekelakeyaPremier League

Last archived meeting: Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi on May 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mekelakeya score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Negelle Arsi score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 24% probability of over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Mekelakeya0.90.784/154/15
Negelle Arsi1.10.885/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mekelakeya sit 2nd in Premier League (10 points from 5 matches) and Negelle Arsi sit 1st (11 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Negelle Arsi53207211
2Mekelakeya53115210

A question about Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi?
The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 31% for Mekelakeya, 36% for a draw, 33% for Negelle Arsi.
Where and when is Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi played?
Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi is played on December 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Addis Ababa Stadium, in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 24% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Mekelakeya and Negelle Arsi

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