Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United: prediction and stats
Thai League 1Regular Season - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Thammasat Stadium, Pathum Thani
The Footlab model makes Bangkok United the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for BG Pathum United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Bangkok United (1,800) and BG Pathum United (1,823).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bangkok United have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; BG Pathum United have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rayong FC(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| May 2, 2026 | Ayutthaya FC(home) | 4-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Uthai Thani(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Chiangrai United(away) | 0-2 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Svay Rieng(away) | 1-1 | ASEAN Club Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| May 10, 2026 | Prachuap(home) | 3-0 | Thai League 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Muangthong United(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC(home) | 1-0 | Thai League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bangkok United win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 BG Pathum United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | BG Pathum United 0-1 Bangkok United | Thai League 1 |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Bangkok United 2-1 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Bangkok United 3-0 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | BG Pathum United 1-0 Bangkok United | Thai League 1 |
| Feb 25, 2024 | BG Pathum United 2-2 Bangkok United | Thai League 1 |
| Sep 25, 2023 | Bangkok United 2-0 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
Last archived meeting: BG Pathum United vs Bangkok United on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bangkok United score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; BG Pathum United score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangkok United | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| BG Pathum United | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bangkok United sit 5th in Thai League 1 (50 points from 30 matches) and BG Pathum United sit 4th (52 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BG Pathum United | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 29 | 52 |
| 5 | Bangkok United | 30 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 43 | 32 | 50 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United?
- The Footlab model makes Bangkok United the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for BG Pathum United.
- Where and when is Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United played?
- Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United is played on September 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Thammasat Stadium, in the Thai League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.