Buriram United vs BG Pathum United: prediction and stats
Thai League 1Regular Season - 9Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Chang Arena, Buriram
The Footlab model makes Buriram United the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for BG Pathum United. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Buriram United starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,965 vs 1,823).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Buriram United have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; BG Pathum United have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Prachuap(home) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| May 27, 2026 | Selangor(home) | 2-1 | ASEAN Club Championship |
| May 20, 2026 | Selangor(away) | 1-0 | ASEAN Club Championship |
| May 17, 2026 | Ayutthaya FC(home) | 5-0 | FA Cup |
| May 13, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(home) | 1-2 | ASEAN Club Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| May 10, 2026 | Prachuap(home) | 3-0 | Thai League 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Muangthong United(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC(home) | 1-0 | Thai League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Buriram United win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 BG Pathum United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Buriram United 0-1 BG Pathum United | League Cup |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BG Pathum United 1-3 Buriram United | Thai League 1 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Buriram United 2-2 BG Pathum United | Thai League 1 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | BG Pathum United 2-2 Buriram United | ASEAN Club Championship |
| May 10, 2025 | Buriram United 3-0 BG Pathum United | FA Cup |
| May 7, 2025 | BG Pathum United 0-0 Buriram United | ASEAN Club Championship |
Last archived meeting: Buriram United vs BG Pathum United on Apr 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Buriram United score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; BG Pathum United score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buriram United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| BG Pathum United | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Buriram United sit 1st in Thai League 1 (70 points from 30 matches) and BG Pathum United sit 4th (52 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 30 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 31 | 70 |
| 4 | BG Pathum United | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 29 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
- The Footlab model makes Buriram United the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for BG Pathum United.
- Where and when is Buriram United vs BG Pathum United played?
- Buriram United vs BG Pathum United is played on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Chang Arena, in the Thai League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.