Barnsley vs Leeds United U21: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 7Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Oakwell, Barnsley, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Barnsley the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Leeds United U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barnsley vs Leeds United U21?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Barnsley (1,786) and Leeds United U21 (1,730).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barnsley have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Leeds United U21 have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | West Bromwich Albion U21(home) | 4-3 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Boreham Wood(away) | 2-5 | National League Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Stoke City U21(away) | 0-0 | Premier League Cup |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Leicester City U21(home) | 2-3 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Manchester United U21(home) | 1-2 | Premier League 2 Division One |
How many goals should we expect?
Barnsley score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds United U21 score 1.1 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Leeds United U21 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barnsley sit 2nd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Leeds United U21 sit 4th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnsley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 4 | Leeds United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barnsley vs Leeds United U21?
- The Footlab model makes Barnsley the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Leeds United U21.
- Where and when is Barnsley vs Leeds United U21 played?
- Barnsley vs Leeds United U21 is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Oakwell, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.